Prediction of Financial Distress and the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on PT Garuda Indonesia for the period 2016-2021
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52434/jwe.v23i3.3603Keywords:
Financial Distress, Altman Z-Score, Financial Performance, Prediction, BankruptcyAbstract
This study aims to analyse the potential financial distress of PT Garuda Indonesia. This research uses the modified Altman Z-Score model approach. This study used quantitative descriptive methods with a case study approach at PT Garuda Indonesia. Measurement of financial health level is done using the Altman ratio model. The data source uses secondary data obtained directly from the company's website. This study used annual report data from 2016 to 2021. Based on the analysis of financial ratios, during the 2016-2021 period, the financial performance of PT Garuda Indonesia continued to decline. The results of the Altman-Z score calculation show that PT Garuda Indonesia is experiencing financial distress. This result is an early warning for PT Garuda Indonesia to improve its financial performance. Suggestions to the Government of Indonesia, through the Ministry of SOEs as the main shareholder in order to give full attention and support to PT Garuda Indonesia to avoid future bankruptcy risks.References
Adnan, M. A., & Kurniasih, E. (2000). Analisis Tingkat Kesehatan Perusahaan Untuk Memprediksi Potensi Kebangkrutan Dengan Pendekatan Altman: Kasus pada Sepuluh Perusahaan di Indonesia. Jurnal Akuntansi dan Auditing Indonesia (JAAI), 4(2), 131–151.
Akyuwen, R. (2011). The Impact of Restructuring on The Airline Performance: The Case of Garuda Indonesia. Communication Today, 2(1), 112–132.
Almilia, L. S., & Kristijadi, K. (2003). Analisis Rasio Keuangan untuk Memprediksi Kondisi Financial Distress Perusahaan Manufaktur yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Jakarta. Jurnal Akuntansi dan Auditing Indonesia (JAAI), 7(2), 183–210.
Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589–609. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2307/2978933
Annual Report Garuda Indonesia. (2020). Laporan Tahunan 2020 PT Garuda Indonesia, Tbk.
Armadani, A., Fisabil, A. I., & Salsabila, D. T. (2021). Analisis Rasio Kebangkrutan Perusahaan pada Masa Pandemi COVID-19. Jurnal Akuntansi, 13(1), 99–108. https://doi.org/10.28932/jam.v13i1.3197
Azim, M., & Sharif, M. J. (2020). Usability of Z Score: A Case Study on Peoples Leasing and Financial Services Limited & Bangladesh Industrial Finance Company Limited. International Journal of Management and Accounting, 2(3), 38–46. https://doi.org/10.34104/ijma.020.038046
Bisnis.Com. (2021). BUMN Tepis Opsi Pailit Garuda (GIAA), Target Restrukturisasi Kuartal II/2022. https://ekonomi.bisnis.com/read/20211103/98/1461834/bumn-tepis-opsi-pailit-garuda-giaa-target-restrukturisasi-kuartal-ii2022
Bursa Efek Indonesia. (2019). Press Release: Perkembangan terkait Penyajian Laporan Keuangan Interim PT Garuda Indonesia Tbk Per 31 Maret 2019. PR No: 037/BEI.SPR/06-2019.
Chen, Z., Tzeremes, P., & Tzeremes, N. G. (2018). Convergence in the Chinese Airline Industry: A Malmquist Productivity Analysis. Journal of Air Transport Management, 73(August), 77–86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2018.08.010
Daryanto, W. M. (2018). Measuring Financial Performance of Garuda Indonesia Airline After Initial Public Offering. Proceeding of The International Conference of Science, Management, and Engineering (ICSME), 239–253.
Endiana, I. D. M., & Suryandari, N. N. A. (2021). Opini Going Concern: Ditinjau dari Agensi Teori dan Pemicunya. EKUITAS (Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan), 5(2), 224–242. https://doi.org/10.24034/j25485024.y2021.v5.i2.4490
Fernandes, N. (2020). Economic Effects of Coronavirus Outbreak (COVID-19) on The World Economy. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3557504
Flight Global. (2021). Airline Business COVID-19 Recovery Tracker: October 2021 Update. https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/airline-business-COVID-19-recovery-tracker-october-2021-update/145902.article
Hamid, T., Akter, F., & Rab, N. B. (2016). Prediction of Financial Distress of Non-Bank Financial Institutions of Bangladesh using Altman’s Z Score Model. International Journal of Business and Management, 11(12), 261. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijbm.v11n12p261
Junaedi, D., & Salistia, F. (2020a). Dampak Pandemi COVID-19 Terhadap Pasar Modal di Indonesia: Studi Kasus Indeks Saham Komposit (ISHG). Al-Kharaj: Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan & Bisnis Syariah, 2(2), 109–131. https://doi.org/10.47467/alkharaj.v2i2.112
Junaedi, D., & Salistia, F. (2020b). Dampak Pandemi COVID-19 Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Negara-Negara Terdampak. Simposium Nasional Keuangan Negara (pp. 995–1115). Badan Pendidikan dan Pelatihan Keuangan Kementerian Keuangan.
Kementerian BUMN. (2002). Keputusan Menteri BUMN Nomor: KEP-100/MBU/2002 Tentang Penilaian Tingkat Kesehatan Badan Usaha Milik Negara. Jakarta: Kementerian BUMN.
Kompas. (2020). Diumumkan Awal Maret, Ahli: Virus Corona Masuk Indonesia dari Januari. https://www.kompas.com/sains/read/2020/05/11/130600623/diumumkan-awal-maret-ahli--virus-corona-masuk-indonesia-dari-januari
Kurniawansyah, D., & Agustia, D. (2021). Model Altman Z-Score Modification Sebagai Early Warning System untuk Memprediksi Financial Distress UMKM di Kabupaten Banyuwangi Indonesia. Jurnal Akuntansi Aktual, 8(2), 139–148. https://doi.org/10.17977/ um004v8i22021p141
Maharani, N. K. (2020). Pengaruh Prediksi Kebangkrutan, Profitabilitas dan Opini Audit Terhadap Nilai Perusahaan. Forum Ilmiah, 17(3), 364–374.
Munawir. (2014). Analisa Laporan Keuangan (Edisi Keempat). Liberty.
Munir, N. S., Prasetyo, A., & Kurnia, P. (2011). Garuda Indonesia: To Becoming a Distinguished Airline. Emerald Emerging Markets Case Studies, 1(1), 1–33. https://doi.org/10.1108/20450621111129654
Nyale, M. H. Y. (2020). Pengaruh Leverage, Cashflow dan Working Capital Terhadap Prediksi Kebangkrutan dengan Pertumbuhan Perusahaan Sebagai Variabel Moderating Pada Perusahaan Jasa Transportasi yang Tercatat di BEI Tahun 2013-2016. Forum Ilmiah, 17, 1–20.
Okezone.Com. (2019). Kronologi Kasus Laporan Keuangan Garuda Indonesia Hingga Kena Sanksi. https://economy.okezone.com/read/2019/06/28/320/2072245/kronologi-kasus-laporan-keuangan-garuda-indonesia-hingga-kena-sanksi
Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. (2019). Siaran Pers: Otoritas Jasa Keuangan Berikan Sanksi Kasus PT Garuda Indonesia Tbk. SP No: 26/DHMS/OJK/VI/2019.
Platt, H. D., & Platt, M. B. (2002). Predicting Corporate Financial Distress: Reflections on Choice-Based Sample Bias. Journal of Economics and Finance, 26(2), 184–199. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02755985
Putra, A. M. B., & Kusumastuti, R. D. (2020). Forecasting Airline Passenger Demand for the Long-haul Route: The Case of Garuda Indonesia. Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Inclusive Business in the Changing World, ICIB 2nd 2019, 530–537. https://doi.org/10.5220/0008433305300537
Pyke, D., & Sibdari, S. (2018). Risk Management in The Airline Industry. Finance and Risk Management for International Logistics and the Supply Chain, 293–315. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-813830-4.00012-5
Rahmawati, E., & Herlambang, P. (2018). Pengaruh Efektivitas Komite Audit Terhadap Financial Distress (Studi Empiris pada Perusahaan Manufaktur yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia, Malaysia, dan Singapura Periode 2014-2015). Jurnal Reviu Akuntansi dan Keuangan, 8(1), 53–68. https://doi.org/10.22219/jrak.v8i1.26
Retnoningsih, S., & Naufa, A. M. (2021). The COVID-19, Policy and Capital Market: Empirical Evidence From Indonesia. Jurnal Reviu Akuntansi Dan Keuangan, 11(2), 412–429. https://doi.org/10.22219/jrak.v11i2.16855
Rizal, M. (2017). Analisis Kinerja Keuangan PT. Garuda Indonesia Tbk. Jurnal Serambi Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 4(1), 1–10.
Rudyawan, A. P., & Badera, I. D. N. (2009). Opini Audit Going Concern: Kajian Berdasarkan Model Prediksi Kebangkrutan, Pertumbuhan Perusahaan, Leverage, dan Reputasi Auditor. Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi dan Bisnis, 4(2), 1–20.
Setiorini, K. R., Rahmawati, R., Payamta, P., Hartoko, S., Kamal, A., Sudibyo, T. D., & Fajri, R. N. (2021). Is Pentagon Fraud Analysis Applies Accordingly at Garuda Indonesia Group? Academy of Entrepreneurship Journal, 27(6), 1–7.
Shome, S., & Verma, S. (2020). Financial Distress in Indian Aviation Industry: Investigation Using Bankruptcy Prediction Models. Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics, 13(25), 91–109. https://doi.org/10.17015/ejbe.2020.025.06
Subramanyam, K. R. (2019). Analisis Laporan Keuangan (Edisi 11). Salemba Empat.
Tikku, A., & Sherman, H. (2019). The Shut Down of Jet Airways. Global Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(3), 1–12.
Yamali, F. R., & Putri, R. N. (2020). Dampak COVID-19 Terhadap Ekonomi Indonesia. Ekonomis: Journal of Economics and Business, 4(2), 384.
